2012 Coolmore Lexington and Jerome Stakes Selections

One last-ditch effort to qualify for the Run for the Roses attracts some late blooming three-year old's to Keeneland and Aqueduct this Saturday. Below are Racing Mogul's selections for the Coolmore Lexington and Jerome Stakes:

Keeneland
Race #9 (Post Time: 5:13) Surface: Polytrack
Coolmore Lexington Stakes
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $200,000
Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Superfecta($.10 min)

A potential lightening-fast pace should allow Holiday Promise (6-1) to celebrate victory in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes. In only his second start, Johannesbourbon (8-1) looks live and has the pedigree to cover the distance. May need a tune-up against classier to defeat this field, but will be a menace on the front end. Morgan’s Guerilla (6-1) enters Lexington fresh off a second place finish in the Illinois Derby in which he overcame an awful trip. Should be easier fighting for the lead today, but there is concern over his ability to cover the distance off a fast front.

Selections:
1. #6 Holiday Promise (6-1)
2. #3 Johannesbourbon (8-1)
3. #1 Morgan’s Guerilla (6-1)

Exotic Spoiler: #4 Skyring (30-1)


Aqueduct
Race#9 (Post Time: 5:00) Surface: Dirt
Jerome Stakes
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $200,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Daily Double Wagers

Corey Nakatani should look to guide Brigand (4-1) into a relaxed stalking position in the colt’s first route effort. The son of Flatter battled his rider in his first trip with blinkers off in his last race; look for an improved ride and effort today with the cap back on. Stirred Up (2-1) is coming off a third-place effort in the Sunland Derby where his closing style did not do the colt any favors in a race with a pedestrian pace. The Lumber Guy (5-2) was axed off the lead in the Wood Memorial and faded to a disappointing fifth place finish in his first route effort. Should face a slightly slower front today and finish in the money.

Selections:
1. #2 Brigand (4-1)
2. #3 Stirred Up (2-1)
3. #1 The Lumber Guy (5-2)

2012 Wood Memorial, Ashland, Carter Handicap, and Santa Anita Derby Selections

Keeneland
Race 8 (4:45 ET) Surface: All-Weather

Central Bank Ashland Stakes
1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $500,000
Double - Exacta - Trifecta ($.50 min)- Pick 3 ($.50 min)(Races 8-9-10) - Superfecta ($.10 min)

Karlovy Vary (5-1) is poised to burst on the scene as an elite filly while she attempts her first race on synthetics today. The George Arnold III trained horse is coming off an impressive optional claiming victory on the turf in Gulfstream, where she triumphed over Heart of Destiny (4-1)--a filly who placed second last Fall in Keeneland’s G1 Alcibiades. Karlovy Vary appears to like the surface after blazing a 59.6 work at five furlongs a fortnight ago. Hard Not To Like (6-1) is well...hard not to like in this race. Stymied by a string of poor trips she looks to set up for a nice, deep-closing run right off the rail. The morning-line favorite and BC Juvenile Filly Turf champion, Stephanie’s Kitchen (8-5), has yet to race since her victory at Churchill Downs last November. She may need a race under her belt to cover the distance on a surface that can swallow up horses lacking in stamina--breaking from the seven post is not going to make the task any easier.

1. Karlovy Vary (5-1)
2. Hard Not To Like (6-1)
3. Stephanie’s Kitchen (8-5)

Aqueduct
Race 9 (5:15 ET) Surface: Dirt
Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,000,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (9-11), Daily Double Wagers

Street Life (4-1) will benefit from a speed duel between the morning-line favorite, Gemologist (8-5) and The Lumber Guy (8-1). The son of Street Sense is a versatile runner who can press or come off the pace, allowing jockey Junior Alvarado the confidence to find him a perfect slot through the first turn. Alpha (5-2) is a talented colt who will come up short in his bid to cover the one mile and an eighth after returning from a 60-day layoff. Gemologist will hang on to round off the trifecta.

1. Street Life (4-1)
2. Alpha (5-2)
3. Gemologist (8-5)

Aqueduct

Race 10  (5:55 ET) Surface: Dirt 
Carter Handicap 
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $400,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Daily Double Wagers

1. Caleb’s Posse (8-5)
2. Calibrachoa (4-1)
3. Jackson Bend (3-1)

Santa Anita
Race 6 (5:41 ET) Surface: Dirt
Santa Anita Derby
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $750,000
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 6-7-8) $2 Pick Six Starts (Races 6-11)/ $1 Superfecta (.10 min)

1. Liason (8-1)
2. Midnight Transfer (10-1)
3. Holy Candy (8-1)

Gotham Stakes Selections: Can Any Horse Challenge Hansen?

Aqueduct

Gotham Stakes (Post Time: 5:02 ET) Surface: Inner track
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $400,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Daily Double Wagers

Race #10

Can any horse challenge Hansen in this crowded Derby prep race? Racing Mogul believes it's highly unlikely. The following are our selections for the 59th running of the Gotham Stakes:

Jockey Ramon Domingeuz will look to replicate the masterful trip he piloted aboard morning-line favorite Hansen (6-5) last November in Saturday's Gotham Stakes, a ride that secured victory in the coveted BC Juvenile at Churchill Downs. None of Hansen’s foes from that prestigious race are entered into Aqueduct's feature today, making the majestic grey colt’s road to the Wood Memorial that much easier. Coming off a second-place finish in the G3 Holy Bull, a race run in the slop where the champ flattened in the final furlongs following a nearly three-month lay off, Hansen is tuned up to cement his name atop the Kentucky Derby future pools. Michael Maker takes the blinkers off for Saturday's race, the first for the colt’s career. This equipment change does not really raise any alarms, as it is an angle that has worked very well for the trainer in the past and the horse is plenty experienced. One small area of concern for the favorite, in addition to carrying high weight, is breaking from the twelve hole. He is one of three or four who will look to assume the lead to the first turn, and if the challenge becomes too chaotic he could end up extremely wide through the turn. His class, however, should be enough to overcome a longer trip barring other mishaps in a crowded thirteen-horse field. With a win, Dominguez will claim his second Gotham in a row (Stay Thirsty, 2011) and his third overall (Cowtown Cat, 2007), tying the mark for most all time in the event.

Stealcase (12-1) hopes to settle in a nice closing position from the rear of the field and pass a host of tiring rivals down the stretch. Shipping in form Florida, the son of Lawyer Ron, who broke his maiden last time out at Gulfstream Park, attempts to honor to his $320,000 price tag against much stiffer competition today. He beat an impressive Pletcher-trained colt who won his next start with style, and appears to be a live one entering the mix. Against this field, the class jump appears more like a baby step.

Rajiv Maragh gets a nice draw breaking from the five post on Maan (15-1). Anticipate the seasoned jockey to rate just off the pace and dig in gamely down the stretch in what is the colt's first route effort. The son of Malibu Moon is coming off an impressive optional claiming win at 6.5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park, in which he swam the rail slop throughout before showing good spark under command to pull away at the end. A little concerned if he can cover the distance, but his pressing running style is the type that covers a little extra distance than what the pedigree suggests.

Selections:

1. Hansen (6-5)
2. Stealcase (12-1)
3. Maan (15-1)

Exotic Spoiler: Done Talking (20-1)

Good luck!