One last-ditch effort to qualify for the Run for the Roses attracts some late blooming three-year old's to Keeneland and Aqueduct this Saturday. Below are Racing Mogul's selections for the Coolmore Lexington and Jerome Stakes:
Keeneland Race #9 (Post Time: 5:13) Surface: Polytrack Coolmore Lexington Stakes 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $200,000 Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Superfecta($.10 min)
A potential lightening-fast pace should allow Holiday Promise (6-1) to celebrate victory in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes. In only his second start, Johannesbourbon (8-1) looks live and has the pedigree to cover the distance. May need a tune-up against classier to defeat this field, but will be a menace on the front end. Morgan’s Guerilla (6-1) enters Lexington fresh off a second place finish in the Illinois Derby in which he overcame an awful trip. Should be easier fighting for the lead today, but there is concern over his ability to cover the distance off a fast front.
Aqueduct Race#9 (Post Time: 5:00) Surface: Dirt Jerome Stakes 1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $200,000 Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Daily Double Wagers
Corey Nakatani should look to guide Brigand (4-1) into a relaxed stalking position in the colt’s first route effort. The son of Flatter battled his rider in his first trip with blinkers off in his last race; look for an improved ride and effort today with the cap back on.Stirred Up (2-1) is coming off a third-place effort in the Sunland Derby where his closing style did not do the colt any favors in a race with a pedestrian pace.The Lumber Guy (5-2) was axed off the lead in the Wood Memorial and faded to a disappointing fifth place finish in his first route effort. Should face a slightly slower front today and finish in the money.
Selections: 1. #2 Brigand (4-1) 2. #3 Stirred Up (2-1) 3. #1 The Lumber Guy (5-2)
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Race 11 (6:18ET) Surface: All Weather 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $750,000 Daily Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Superfecta($.10 min)
With a morning line of 6-5, Hansen is unplayable in a field of thirteen three-year olds. In a race that has seen the favorite win only 21% of the time over the last fourteen years, it is advantageous for horseplayers to look for a winner beyond the impressive BC Juvenile champion. Racing Mogul will play Hansen in our exotics, but our three selections to knock off the favorite are as follows:
We are a tad gung ho about trainer Michael Maker’s other horse in the field, Gung Ho (30-1). Many will look over the Ramsey owned horse in the past performances upon first glance, but the son of Kitten’s Joy looks ready to burst onto the scene. Going off at 10:1, he finished a demoralizing seventh in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October after getting caught in the doldrums off the final turn. Most recently finishing with a nice second-place tune up in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, his running style and post position fit nicely for a race with a lot of horses rushing to the lead. Midnight Crooner (15-1) is similar to Gung Ho in running style and experience, having raced only at the ungraded level. Looks live coming in and well suited for the surface and projected pace scenario; willl struggle to overcome the eight hole, however. How great is Howe Great (6-1)? We’ll find out when he attempts to stalk the pace from the 10 post.
Selections:
1. Gung Ho (30-1)
2. Midnight Crooner (15-1)
3. Howe Great(6-1)
Oaklawn Park
Arkansas DerbyRace 11 (6:45ET) Surface: Dirt 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,000,000First Half Late Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
We like Secret Circle(5-2) to continue his Oaklawn Park win streak. His stablemate and morning-line favorite Bodemeister (9-5) may struggle with the pace and deeper surface than what he treads on regularly in southern California, but he should bring home the place. Sabrecat (15-1) will improve on a disappointing run in the Rebel Stakes.
Tampa Bay Downs Race #11 Tampa Bay Derby(Post Time: 5:28 ET) Surface: Dirt 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $350,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum)
The Mark Casse trained, Prospective (8-1), will seek a prospective victory in the Grade II, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby for 3-year-old Triple Crown candidates on Saturday. The son of Malibu Moon is coming off a tough second-place finish in the Grade III, Sam F. Davis Stakes, ran last month on today's sandy surface, in which the public backed him as co-favorite. Breaking from the far outside, Prospectivewas stuck five wide through the first turn, as regular jock Luis Contreras attempted to settle him in to a more favorable racing position down the back stretch. The circumstances allowed the leaders to draw further away than his connections desired, and the dark brown colt was asked to make his move well before the stretch run four wide through the second turn. Casse equips Prospectivewith blinkers for the first time today in an effort to keep the horse focused and forward. A stalking run in this race is ideal for the win, especially with a few speed horses aiming to race hard to the front from the far outside.
Morning-line favorite, Spring Hill Farm (5-2), is one of those darters who will shoot to the front end of the field. With two victories from two lifetime starts, Todd Pletcher's horse will certainly be a contender, but will have to work hard to stay up front. Spring Hill Farm won last time out in the slop while on the lead in his only route effort at Gulfstream Park. Questions remain, however, if the son of Smart Strike can hold his stamina on a deeper surface at this class level. Thoroughbred writer and seasoned handicapper, Peter Mallett, published a wonderful previewto today's race, pointing out that Pletcher has saddled five very short prices for this race and only one has gone on to win (Limehouse). Moreover, out of nine starters total for the Hall of Fame trainer, seven have finished second and one for show.
Cajun Charlie(15-1) enters this race with three wins out of five starts. The shipper will be facing much tougher in today's contest after beating up on Louisiana state-bred competition in his previous outings. He is breaking from the far outside and will look to challenge Spring Hill Farm and others for the lead. If he can get to the first turn comfortably he may be in a nice position to control the race to his liking. Carrying high weight is an issue, but we would not be shocked to see the chestnut gelding vie for the win in a speed duel, especially if the course comes up wet.
Selections:
1. #1 - Prospective (8-1) 2. #9 - Spring Hill Farm(5-2) 3. #12 Cajun Charlie (15-1)
Exotic spoiler:
#8 - Ravelo's Boy (12-1)
Get your free Brisnet past performance for the Tampa Bay Derby here.
Gotham Stakes (Post Time: 5:02 ET) Surface: Inner track 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $400,000 Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Daily Double Wagers
Race #10
Can any horse challenge Hansen in this crowded Derby prep race? Racing Mogul believes it's highly unlikely. The following are our selections for the 59th running of the Gotham Stakes:
Jockey Ramon Domingeuz will look to replicate the masterful trip he piloted aboard morning-line favorite Hansen (6-5) last November in Saturday's Gotham Stakes, a ride that secured victory in the coveted BC Juvenile at Churchill Downs. None of Hansen’sfoes from that prestigious race are entered into Aqueduct's feature today, making the majestic grey colt’s road to the Wood Memorial that much easier. Coming off a second-place finish in the G3 Holy Bull, a race run in the slop where the champ flattened in the final furlongs
following a nearly three-month lay off, Hansen is tuned up to cement his name atop the Kentucky Derby future pools. Michael Maker takes the blinkers off for Saturday's race, the first for the colt’s career. This equipment change does not really raise any alarms, as it is an angle that has worked very well for the trainer in the past and the horse is plenty experienced. One small area of concern for the favorite, in addition to carrying high weight, is breaking from the twelve hole. He is one of three or four who will look to assume the lead to the first turn, and if the challenge becomes too chaotic he could end up extremely wide through the turn. His class, however, should be enough to overcome a longer trip barring other mishaps in a crowded thirteen-horse field. With a win, Dominguez will claim his second Gotham in a row (Stay Thirsty, 2011) and his third overall (Cowtown Cat, 2007), tying the mark for most all time in the event.
Stealcase (12-1) hopes to settle in a nice closing position from the rear of the field and pass a host of tiring rivals down the stretch. Shipping in form Florida, the son of Lawyer Ron, who broke his maiden last time out at Gulfstream Park, attempts to honor to his $320,000 price tag against much stiffer competition today. He beat an impressive Pletcher-trained colt who won his next start with style, and appears to be a live one entering the mix. Against this field, the class jump appears more like a baby step.
Rajiv Maragh gets a nice draw breaking from the five post on Maan (15-1). Anticipate the seasoned jockey to rate just off the pace and dig in gamely down the stretch in what is the colt's first route effort. The son of Malibu Moon is coming off an impressive optional claiming win at 6.5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park, in which he swam the rail slop throughout before showing good spark under command to pull away at the end. A little concerned if he can cover the distance, but his pressing running style is the type that covers a little extra distance than what the pedigree suggests.
Selections:
1. Hansen (6-5)
2. Stealcase (12-1)
3. Maan (15-1)
For the first time since 2002, Oaklawn Park (OP) track officials have split the G3 Southwest Stakes into two divisions for the President’s Day feature. 21 three-year-old horses will vie for the $250,000 purses in races eight and nine in hopes of progressing to the cozy resort town’s big-pay event, the G1 Arkansas Derby. Can the silver-haired genius Bob Baffert take both divisions today? When shipping domestically Baffert owns a 38% winning percentage in G3 stakes races on dirt going a mile or over in the last five years, including two victories in his only starts at OP (Southwest 2010, Azeri 2010). We think he gets at least one of two, but expect both his horses to come in the money. Racing Moguls’ selections are as follows:
Reckless Jerry(9-2) looks to avenge his second-place finish to Junebugred in the Smarty Jones last month, as the Kenny Smith trained chestnut seeks a better trip than the five-wide half-marathon jockey Shane Laviolette was forced to run after breaking from the 12 post. Some classier horses jump off the page after an initial scan through the past performances, but we like his tempered running style in what is a race loaded with front-end speed. Junebugred looks to fire another big race, but is carrying seven extra pounds to most in the field and this may be the difference make between the first and second place horses who battled it out last month. Baffert’s Castaway (5-1) will need the perfect trip to win, breaking from the far outside. Since turning to route distances, the son of Street Sense is running more maturely and appears ready to blast a huge race. The pace will be hot and he will need to catch the first turn earlier than his peers, or he may get stuck five wide through the turn. If he does get the lead, expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to hold onto it with great fortitude. Junebugred (7-2) is working great after his Smarty Jones victory and looks to be in the mix again today. Added weight is a concern going long against comparable peers.
We loathe to back an even money morning-line favorite in a 10-horse field, but Secret Circle (1-1) is the real deal. The brown colt by Eddington is the reigning champ of the BC Juvenile Sprint and has holds a distinct class advantage over his competitors. He ran very well in his first route race in the G3 Sham, where he led the field down the stretch before being nudged out at the wire. Look for a more stamina-ready colt today. We expect Big Wednesday(15-1) to have a big Monday today. The Joseph Martin trained son of Repent had an awful trip in his only race on dirt at Mountaineer (where he was bothered early), but has fired away three wins in his only other starts on synthetics. There is nothing to suggest he can’t take to the surface, as his works at OP are solid. Starting from the far post, look for jockey Ramon Vazquez to tuck him behind the majority of the pack and make a move down the stretch. Scatman (6-1) will round out the trifecta. He should test the pace, and has proven he can handle a hot one. The son of Scat Daddy may be the only real threat to Secret Circle.
Picks: 1. #9 Secret Circle 2. #10 Big Wednesday 3. #3 Scatman
Santa Anita San Vicente Stakes(Post Time: 3:36) Surface: Dirt 7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $150,000 $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 7-8-9) $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
The San Vicente is a critical race for aspiring three-year old colts. Not only is it a key steppingstone to the Santa Anita Derby, but the winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby nine times. American Act(4-1), trained by Jack Carava, is taking an atypical route to today’s event, making a huge jump in class straight from a wire-to-wire victory in a MSW at Santa Anita last month. Concerning American Act'schances of running in Louisville on the first Saturday in May, Carava boasted to a Daily Racing Form (DRF) correspondent, “Pedigree-wise he may run long. He’s got a stride like a route horse...this race (San Vicente) will tell us how we go forward.” In a short field with only two black-type winners, Racing Mogul is backing the gelding’s chances to take advantage of circumstances and become a shock Derby candidate.
Perhaps the most impressive angle bettors will target with American Actis the second place horse he defeated last time out, Bodemeister. The Zayat owned colt trained by Bob Baffert blazed a clock-stopping effort in his second MSW effort last weekend, flashing the field by over nine lengths in a hand ride. The performance generated whispers of a late-blooming Derby contender, and thus far he looks just as impressive as most in today’s field. American Act won the race with an above-average early pace and padded his lead in the end, making the effort that much more impressive.
Drill(9-2), the winner of the Grade I Del Mar Futurity last September, has fallen flat his last few out. Stuck four wide in his last start, the 6.5f San Pedro Stakes, he sputtered down the stretch. Baffert tested him at route distances and on multiple surfaces prior to the sprint effort, giving the lifeless colt a few excuses for his poor performances leading up to today’s race. Drill’s most recent works have been far from “drilled” which makes morning watchers believe Baffert is deviating from his bullet breezes as a strategy to resuscitate a weakened horse. We think he rebounds today with a better trip, new work-out pattern, and preferred conditions.
The Grade I Norfolk Stakes winner, Creative Cause (3-5), enters his first race since an impressive third-place finish in the BC Juvenile. Trainer Mike Harrington’s reaction to today’s race worries us a bit, as he is treating the San Pedro as more of a tune up to the colt’s next start. “This is a big race, but he doesn’t have to win,” Harrington warned the DRF. “If he wins, fine. I expect him to run well. But I’m just trying to get a race into him.” If caught in an awkward situation, jockey Joel Rosario may play the race cautiously and settle for a money finish.
Santa Anita Race 8 - Sweet Life Stakes (4:07) Surface: Downhill turf About 6 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | STAKES | Purse: $70,000
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
Sunday's third running of the Sweet Life stakes draws eight three-year old fillies hoping to cross the wire in first and catapault to graded company. The Mike Puype trained Vionnet(6-1) is our choice to win. The grey Street Sense filly is out of Cambiocorsa by Avenue of Flags, a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won nine starts on the lawn. Jockey David Flores gets the mount and sports an impressive 5 for 20 lifetime stakes race wins with Puype. Flores will settle Vionnet neatly near the back and charge the leaders down the stretch in a race with a lot of front-end speed. The longest price on the board, Dypsy (12-1), shipped to southern California from mid-west obscurity and has been zipping bullet works for trainer Richard Baltas. The chestnut's giant leap in class coupled with a desire to take the lead is a concern, but Racing Mogul believes she will take well to her first time on turf and hang around in the end. Making her first start in the U.S., Dijarvo (5-2), will settle the trifecta. Trainer Patrick Gallagher is sending out his fair share of winners this meet and is cashing at a 25% clip with first-time starters.
Gulfstream Park is the site for this weekend’s premiere U.S. horse racing program, as the southern Florida track and casino hosts four stakes races, including the feature, $500,000 Donn Handicap. Racing Mogul’s selections for the races and wagering strategies are as follows:
UPDATE - Main-Sloppy/Turf-Soft *Wet conditions have forced a number of scratches. See comments in red for updated wagering strategies
Thunder Moccasin (7-5) is our favorite to win Saturday’s $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2). Only his second lifetime start, trainer Todd Pletcher is making an ambitious jump in class with his barn’s newest phenom. The colt attracted the horse racing world’s attention after he drew clear of the field by 2.5 lengths in his debut at Gulfstream Park in a $40,000 MSW going 6.5 furlongs. Both the second and third place horses from the race went on to win next time out, an angle savvy horse player’s will favor immensely.
Pletcher does not consider the son of A.P. Warrior to jump on the Derby trail despite the race being a stepping stone for contenders. “I think he gets seven-eighths to a mile, after that I’d be a little surprised (to see him stretch out),” Pletcher remarked in an interview for Gulfstream Park reporters. The trainer continues, “He’s pretty forward and ambitious early, so I think he’s a sprinter. That’s the feeling he gives us at the barn.”
There appears to be little speed on the lead to have a chance at wearing down Thunder Moccasin. This horse is fast, fast, fast, breezing a bullet 47.66 at 4f in his most recent workout. With a clean break he should take the field wire to wire. Opening as the 7-5 morning-line favorite, this price should dwindle down to even money or worse with only six horses slated to start. He will be a better choice to key on a pick-3 wager with two favorable betting races to follow.
*Trainer Johnathan Shephard has scratched Thunder Moccasin's primary threat Ever So Lucky, making the race a field of five. Frankly, he probably wanted to duck this race anyway, as he sees his young colt as a Derby contender and faced stern competition against Pletcher's horse. We are a little skeptical of Thunder Moccasin's ability to take to the slop. He is so fast that it shouldn't be a problem, but the track may deteriorate to muddy depending if the grounds crew struggle to groom the dirt and keep water out. There are stamina concerns if that is the case.
Race 9 - Suwannee River Stakes(Post Time: 4:17)Surface: Turf
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up | G3 STAKES | Purse: $150,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Bet 3 (Races 9-10-11) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-10-11-12)
This route trip on the lawn for older fillies and mares is a good betting race with several real contenders. Racing Mogul is backing Heavenly Landing(4-1), a five-year-old mare trained by Eddie Kenneally who has won her last three races over the turf. Here is a replay of her last start in The Marshua’s River Stakes (G3), where she rallied down the stretch as a 20:1 long shot to nip the field at the wire:
The morning-line favorite, Denomination (3-1), will rate well and finish in the money. Commandeered by Joe Bravo, when riding for the turf-master Cristophe Clement this meet, they are teaming up for a 26% win rate with an impressive average return of $3.08.
Bet: Win/Place: #4 Heavenly Landing
*We'll hold our play here. Not sure how she'll take to the soft turf, but the two scratches in the race should not affect the pace scenario. If anything, there will be more room for a late closer like Heavenly Landing to make a move down the stretch. Recommend a smaller wager.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 10 - Donn Handicap (Post Time: 4:45) Surface: Dirt 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $500,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Bet 3 (Races 10-11-12)
The feature race is potentially the strongest field ever for the Donn. It features last year’s Preakness and Belmont winners, Shackleford(7-2) and Ruler On Ice (6-1); the Breeders’ Cup Classic post-time favorite, Flat Out (5-1); and an undefeated horse, Trickmeister (6-1), who may go off as the bettor’s favorite. Whoever takes the most money at the window will still offer a nice price, as 4-1 may be the lowest any horse drops in this field.
Morning-line favorite, Shackleford, is our choice to win. This is his first start in three months after coming home second in the BC Dirt Mile. There is not much speed in this race. Look for Trickmeister to take the lead with Shackleford rating closely to the first corner. How fast the two push the pace will determine if they stay near the front come the finish. Veteran jockey Ramon Dominguez, his first time on the lightly raced Trickmeister, should keep the Richard Dutrow horse from getting caught too loose on the lead. Shackleford will press and take the wire in a close battle down the stretch.
*We'll stay with our original wager here. A little worried Shackleford may taste a little more dirt than he likes while potentially chasing Trickmeister, but it shouldn't be too much mud in his face as most of the field will be behind the two. In his only off-track start in the Belmont, Shackleford wilted at the end and finished 5th, but we're willing to overlook that result as the Classic contest presents its own unique challenges.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 11 - Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (Post Time 5:13) Surface: Turf 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $300,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Racing Mogul is backingSmart Bid(8-1) to earn his first G1 victory against an average field. The son of Smart Strike gets around Florida grass really well and and just missed winning this race last year by a nose.
Bet: Win/Place: #9 Smart Bid
*Motion has scratched Smart Bid. We will play #8 Kindergarden Kid to Win/Place
