Race 11 Fountain of Youth Stakes(Post Time: 5:13ET) Surface: Dirt 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $400,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta Discreet Dancer (3-1) will look for a tango partner on the lead of Gulfstream Park's feature race, the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes. With his stablemate, the morning-line favorite Algorithms, scratching this morning, the Todd Pletcher trained colt should duel with Union Rags for honors as the public's betting choice. Breaking from the five post, Discreet Dancershould vie for the lead to the half mile with Casual Trick just inside him, which is not the position you desire. Yesterday's rail was deep and slow, wearing down speedsters, stalkers, closers, and every other type of running style you fancy. Discreet Dancershould benefit sitting two or three wide. We always perk up when Pletcher assumes a new prodigy from the trust of former real-estate mogul and philanthropist, Einar Paul Robsham. In the last five years, the barn has won seven of 13 horses entered in graded stakes events and boasts a win rate of 40%. "Live for five" is our declaration today.
Gulfstream Park is the site for this weekend’s premiere U.S. horse racing program, as the southern Florida track and casino hosts four stakes races, including the feature, $500,000 Donn Handicap. Racing Mogul’s selections for the races and wagering strategies are as follows:
UPDATE - Main-Sloppy/Turf-Soft *Wet conditions have forced a number of scratches. See comments in red for updated wagering strategies
Thunder Moccasin (7-5) is our favorite to win Saturday’s $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2). Only his second lifetime start, trainer Todd Pletcher is making an ambitious jump in class with his barn’s newest phenom. The colt attracted the horse racing world’s attention after he drew clear of the field by 2.5 lengths in his debut at Gulfstream Park in a $40,000 MSW going 6.5 furlongs. Both the second and third place horses from the race went on to win next time out, an angle savvy horse player’s will favor immensely.
Pletcher does not consider the son of A.P. Warrior to jump on the Derby trail despite the race being a stepping stone for contenders. “I think he gets seven-eighths to a mile, after that I’d be a little surprised (to see him stretch out),” Pletcher remarked in an interview for Gulfstream Park reporters. The trainer continues, “He’s pretty forward and ambitious early, so I think he’s a sprinter. That’s the feeling he gives us at the barn.”
There appears to be little speed on the lead to have a chance at wearing down Thunder Moccasin. This horse is fast, fast, fast, breezing a bullet 47.66 at 4f in his most recent workout. With a clean break he should take the field wire to wire. Opening as the 7-5 morning-line favorite, this price should dwindle down to even money or worse with only six horses slated to start. He will be a better choice to key on a pick-3 wager with two favorable betting races to follow.
*Trainer Johnathan Shephard has scratched Thunder Moccasin's primary threat Ever So Lucky, making the race a field of five. Frankly, he probably wanted to duck this race anyway, as he sees his young colt as a Derby contender and faced stern competition against Pletcher's horse. We are a little skeptical of Thunder Moccasin's ability to take to the slop. He is so fast that it shouldn't be a problem, but the track may deteriorate to muddy depending if the grounds crew struggle to groom the dirt and keep water out. There are stamina concerns if that is the case.
Race 9 - Suwannee River Stakes(Post Time: 4:17)Surface: Turf
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up | G3 STAKES | Purse: $150,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Bet 3 (Races 9-10-11) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-10-11-12)
This route trip on the lawn for older fillies and mares is a good betting race with several real contenders. Racing Mogul is backing Heavenly Landing(4-1), a five-year-old mare trained by Eddie Kenneally who has won her last three races over the turf. Here is a replay of her last start in The Marshua’s River Stakes (G3), where she rallied down the stretch as a 20:1 long shot to nip the field at the wire:
The morning-line favorite, Denomination (3-1), will rate well and finish in the money. Commandeered by Joe Bravo, when riding for the turf-master Cristophe Clement this meet, they are teaming up for a 26% win rate with an impressive average return of $3.08.
Bet: Win/Place: #4 Heavenly Landing
*We'll hold our play here. Not sure how she'll take to the soft turf, but the two scratches in the race should not affect the pace scenario. If anything, there will be more room for a late closer like Heavenly Landing to make a move down the stretch. Recommend a smaller wager.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 10 - Donn Handicap (Post Time: 4:45) Surface: Dirt 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $500,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Bet 3 (Races 10-11-12)
The feature race is potentially the strongest field ever for the Donn. It features last year’s Preakness and Belmont winners, Shackleford(7-2) and Ruler On Ice (6-1); the Breeders’ Cup Classic post-time favorite, Flat Out (5-1); and an undefeated horse, Trickmeister (6-1), who may go off as the bettor’s favorite. Whoever takes the most money at the window will still offer a nice price, as 4-1 may be the lowest any horse drops in this field.
Morning-line favorite, Shackleford, is our choice to win. This is his first start in three months after coming home second in the BC Dirt Mile. There is not much speed in this race. Look for Trickmeister to take the lead with Shackleford rating closely to the first corner. How fast the two push the pace will determine if they stay near the front come the finish. Veteran jockey Ramon Dominguez, his first time on the lightly raced Trickmeister, should keep the Richard Dutrow horse from getting caught too loose on the lead. Shackleford will press and take the wire in a close battle down the stretch.
*We'll stay with our original wager here. A little worried Shackleford may taste a little more dirt than he likes while potentially chasing Trickmeister, but it shouldn't be too much mud in his face as most of the field will be behind the two. In his only off-track start in the Belmont, Shackleford wilted at the end and finished 5th, but we're willing to overlook that result as the Classic contest presents its own unique challenges.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 11 - Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (Post Time 5:13) Surface: Turf 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $300,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Racing Mogul is backingSmart Bid(8-1) to earn his first G1 victory against an average field. The son of Smart Strike gets around Florida grass really well and and just missed winning this race last year by a nose.
Bet: Win/Place: #9 Smart Bid
*Motion has scratched Smart Bid. We will play #8 Kindergarden Kid to Win/Place
