Discreet Dancer to Win the Fountain of Youth

Race 11
Fountain of Youth Stakes (Post Time: 5:13ET) Surface: Dirt
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $400,000
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Discreet Dancer (3-1) will look for a tango partner on the lead of Gulfstream Park's feature race, the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes. With his stablemate, the morning-line favorite Algorithms, scratching this morning, the Todd Pletcher trained colt should duel with Union Rags for honors as the public's betting choice. Breaking from the five post, Discreet Dancer should vie for the lead to the half mile with Casual Trick just inside him, which is not the position you desire. Yesterday's rail was deep and slow, wearing down speedsters, stalkers, closers, and every other type of running style you fancy. Discreet Dancer should benefit sitting two or three wide. We always perk up when Pletcher assumes a new prodigy from the trust of former real-estate mogul and philanthropist, Einar Paul Robsham. In the last five years, the barn has won seven of 13 horses entered in graded stakes events and boasts a win rate of 40%. "Live for five" is our declaration today.

Selections:

1. Discreet Dancer

2. Union Rags

3. News Pending 

Fair Grounds Foursome: Risen Star Stakes, Rachel Alexandra, et al

The New Orleans Fair Grounds celebrates the end of Mardi Gras with four graded stakes races to reinvigorate the “Big Easy’s” party atmosphere to a festival level. The feature GII Risen Star Stakes for three-year old males is the forerunner to the Louisiana Derby and official prep for the Kentucky Derby. Racing Mogul visited a fortune teller in the French Quarter last night and was cautioned that morning-line favorite El Padrino can not Afford to ignore Tizanexpense, and that a Hero of Order may be summonsed to corral the enigmatic field of youngsters. With such sage advice, I stumbled home and scratched out the following selections:

Race 11
Risen Star Stakes (Post Time: 4:55) Surface: Dirt
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $300,000
Exacta / Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Daily Double


Breaking from the far outside, Tizanexpense (10-1), the son of Tiznow ridden by jockey Miguel Mena, may need to conjure up some voodoo magic to find the trip necessary to take this field at the wire. After starting his career losing ground on synthetics and the lawn, the brown colt took to the dirt in his last two starts by default and took a liking to the sandy surface with two victories. Racing three wide through the first turn in his last race, the Michael Maker trained horse rallied down the stretch to win an optional claimer on today’s course. He has shown versatility in his young career, winning from the lead and off the pace, a talent which should help overcome the poor starting position. The blossoming "M&M" connection between Maker and Mena are a perfect five for five in the money in the last 90 days at the historic New Orleans track, with two wins. Will be a player in today’s race.

Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan gets his second start aboard the son of Street Sense, Afford (8-1), breaking from the always desirable one hole, which is winning at a 17% clip this meet at route distances on the dirt. Like Tizanexpense, the dark brown colt is facing much tougher today but displays many signs suggesting he is ready to rise to the occasion. Won last time out in his first route race following a nearly two-month layoff while going five wide through the first turn. No surprise trainer Greg Geier enters this horse two weeks off his last start; he’s rearing to go and may show a lot more effort two off a long layoff with a better trip.

Hero of Order (30-1) enters this race after a whopping 11 previous starts, of which he has only broken his maiden. He should be the rabbit in a field that otherwise has little front-end speed. He’s had difficulty maintaining his stamina, but has shown a new maturity in his past few starts and has several excuses. Ran a game fifth in the GIII LeComte Stakes after being hung three wide in the first turn and is coming off a third-place finish in an optional claimer where he posted a career high Beyer of 80 after his mount lost the whip. Track maintenance more than likely packed the dirt course fairly tight last night for the eye-catching card, and we expect the course to favor speed today. Wouldn’t surprise if Hero of Order could hold on for a shock upset.

1. Tizanexpense
2. Afford
3. Hero of Order

Wager: We think any of these three can steal a victory from the favorite. Win bets for each in a graduated system using three units. If wet, small on Hero of Order across the board.

Race 6
Fair Grounds Handicap (Post Time: 2:28) Surface: Turf

1. Mr. Vegas
2. Dubious Miss
3. Smart Bid


Race 7
Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Post Time: 2:58) Surface: Dirt


1. Inny Minnie
2. Annaclone
3. Summer Applause


Race 9
Mineshaft Handicap (Post Time: 3:55) Surface: Dirt


1. Tres Borrachos
2. Thiskyhasnolimit
3. Fast Alex


Wager: Exacta Box 3,6,8 with 3,5,6,8

Bob Baffert to Sweep the Southwest Stakes?

For the first time since 2002, Oaklawn Park (OP) track officials have split the G3 Southwest Stakes into two divisions for the President’s Day feature. 21 three-year-old horses will vie for the $250,000 purses in races eight and nine in hopes of progressing to the cozy resort town’s big-pay event, the G1 Arkansas Derby. Can the silver-haired genius Bob Baffert take both divisions today? When shipping domestically Baffert owns a 38% winning percentage in G3 stakes races on dirt going a mile or over in the last five years, including two victories in his only starts at OP (Southwest 2010, Azeri 2010). We think he gets at least one of two, but expect both his horses to come in the money. Racing Moguls’ selections are as follows:

Race #8
Southwest Stakes - Division 1 (Post Time: 4:41) Surface: Dirt
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $250,000
First Half Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)

Reckless Jerry (9-2) looks to avenge his second-place finish to Junebugred in the Smarty Jones last month, as the Kenny Smith trained chestnut seeks a better trip than the five-wide half-marathon jockey Shane Laviolette was forced to run after breaking from the 12 post. Some classier horses jump off the page after an initial scan through the past performances, but we like his tempered running style in what is a race loaded with front-end speed. Junebugred looks to fire another big race, but is carrying seven extra pounds to most in the field and this may be the difference make between the first and second place horses who battled it out last month. Baffert’s Castaway (5-1) will need the perfect trip to win, breaking from the far outside. Since turning to route distances, the son of Street Sense is running more maturely and appears ready to blast a huge race. The pace will be hot and he will need to catch the first turn earlier than his peers, or he may get stuck five wide through the turn. If he does get the lead, expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to hold onto it with great fortitude. Junebugred (7-2) is working great after his Smarty Jones victory and looks to be in the mix again today. Added weight is a concern going long against comparable peers.

Picks:
1. #8 Reckless Jerry
2. #11 Castaway
3. #6 Junebugred

Exotic Spoiler: 

#3 Jake Mo

Race #9
Southwest Stakes - Division 2 (Post Time: 5:15) Surface: Dirt
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $250,000
First Half Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)

We loathe to back an even money morning-line favorite in a 10-horse field, but Secret Circle (1-1) is the real deal. The brown colt by Eddington is the reigning champ of the BC Juvenile Sprint and has holds a distinct class advantage over his competitors. He ran very well in his first route race in the G3 Sham, where he led the field down the stretch before being nudged out at the wire. Look for a more stamina-ready colt today. We expect Big Wednesday (15-1) to have a big Monday today. The Joseph Martin trained son of Repent had an awful trip in his only race on dirt at Mountaineer (where he was bothered early), but has fired away three wins in his only other starts on synthetics. There is nothing to suggest he can’t take to the surface, as his works at OP are solid. Starting from the far post, look for jockey Ramon Vazquez to tuck him behind the majority of the pack and make a move down the stretch. Scatman (6-1) will round out the trifecta. He should test the pace, and has proven he can handle a hot one. The son of Scat Daddy may be the only real threat to Secret Circle.

Picks:
1. #9 Secret Circle
2. #10 Big Wednesday
3. #3 Scatman

Exotic Spoiler: #10 Big Wednesday

American Act to Cruise in the San Vicente

Race #7

Santa Anita
San Vicente Stakes (Post Time: 3:36) Surface: Dirt
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $150,000
 $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 7-8-9) $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)

The San Vicente is a critical race for aspiring three-year old colts. Not only is it a key steppingstone to the Santa Anita Derby, but the winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby nine times. American Act (4-1), trained by Jack Carava, is taking an atypical route to today’s event, making a huge jump in class straight from a wire-to-wire victory in a MSW at Santa Anita last month. Concerning American Act's chances of running in Louisville on the first Saturday in May, Carava boasted to a Daily Racing Form (DRF) correspondent, “Pedigree-wise he may run long. He’s got a stride like a route horse...this race (San Vicente) will tell us how we go forward.” In a short field with only two black-type winners, Racing Mogul is backing the gelding’s chances to take advantage of circumstances and become a shock Derby candidate.

Perhaps the most impressive angle bettors will target with American Act is the second place horse he defeated last time out, Bodemeister. The Zayat owned colt trained by Bob Baffert blazed a clock-stopping effort in his second MSW effort last weekend, flashing the field by over nine lengths in a hand ride. The performance generated whispers of a late-blooming Derby contender, and thus far he looks just as impressive as most in today’s field. American Act won the race with an above-average early pace and padded his lead in the end, making the effort that much more impressive.

Drill (9-2), the winner of the Grade I Del Mar Futurity last September, has fallen flat his last few out. Stuck four wide in his last start, the 6.5f San Pedro Stakes, he sputtered down the stretch. Baffert tested him at route distances and on multiple surfaces prior to the sprint effort, giving the lifeless colt a few excuses for his poor performances leading up to today’s race. Drill’s most recent works have been far from “drilled” which makes morning watchers believe Baffert is deviating from his bullet breezes as a strategy to resuscitate a weakened horse. We think he rebounds today with a better trip, new work-out pattern, and preferred conditions. 

The Grade I Norfolk Stakes winner, Creative Cause (3-5), enters his first race since an impressive third-place finish in the BC Juvenile. Trainer Mike Harrington’s reaction to today’s race worries us a bit, as he is treating the San Pedro as more of a tune up to the colt’s next start. “This is a big race, but he doesn’t have to win,” Harrington warned the DRF. “If he wins, fine. I expect him to run well. But I’m just trying to get a race into him.” If caught in an awkward situation, jockey Joel Rosario may play the race cautiously and settle for a money finish.

1. American Act
2. Drill
3. Creative Cause

Hollendorfer to Win El Camino Real Derby

Race #8
El Camino Real Derby (Post Time: 4:43) Surface: All Weather Track
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $200,000
$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Daily Double

Opening in 1982, the grade III, El Camino Real Derby is the first real stamina test of the season for three-year olds with an eye for the Kentucky Derby, going 9 furlongs on the all-weather Tapeta surface. Five-time winning trainer of this event, the esteemed trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, saddles two horses that Racing Mogul backs to challenge for the win.

Morning-line favorite, Russian Greek (5-2), will angle to make a final dash down the stretch to nip the leaders in a race with a lot of front-end speed. The son of Giant’s Causeway faces many of the same foes he defeated last month in the California Derby at Golden Gates Field, a race that saw jockey Aaron Gryder close the field after blazing early fractions (23.26; 47.15). See a replay here:

Lady of Fifty (5-1), the lone filly in the field and other Hollendorfer entry, is the giant question mark. You have to love the fact hall-of-fame rider and eight-time winner of this race, Russell Baze, endorses the grey/roan daughter of After Market. Coming off a recent romp in the California Oaks, she likes to run on the lead, yet has failed to square off against stiff early fractions in her career. Baze will look to navigate her quickly to the front from the #10 post. Can she hold on? We are not too confident, but like the connections enough to see her finish in the money. 

Dogged by a string of awful trips, Cahill Chrome (10-1), will break from the #3 post and attempt to settle in on the rail and stalk the pace. The son of Cahill Road was stuck four wide through both turns in the California Derby and held his own at the end, coming in second place. Look for him to hold off a late charge by Lucky Chappy (7-2).


1. Russian Greek
2. Lady of Fifty
3. Cahill Chrome