Black Caviar jump out - Caulfield Racecourse - 17 April 2012

2012 Coolmore Lexington and Jerome Stakes Selections

One last-ditch effort to qualify for the Run for the Roses attracts some late blooming three-year old's to Keeneland and Aqueduct this Saturday. Below are Racing Mogul's selections for the Coolmore Lexington and Jerome Stakes:

Keeneland
Race #9 (Post Time: 5:13) Surface: Polytrack
Coolmore Lexington Stakes
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $200,000
Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Superfecta($.10 min)

A potential lightening-fast pace should allow Holiday Promise (6-1) to celebrate victory in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes. In only his second start, Johannesbourbon (8-1) looks live and has the pedigree to cover the distance. May need a tune-up against classier to defeat this field, but will be a menace on the front end. Morgan’s Guerilla (6-1) enters Lexington fresh off a second place finish in the Illinois Derby in which he overcame an awful trip. Should be easier fighting for the lead today, but there is concern over his ability to cover the distance off a fast front.

Selections:
1. #6 Holiday Promise (6-1)
2. #3 Johannesbourbon (8-1)
3. #1 Morgan’s Guerilla (6-1)

Exotic Spoiler: #4 Skyring (30-1)


Aqueduct
Race#9 (Post Time: 5:00) Surface: Dirt
Jerome Stakes
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $200,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Daily Double Wagers

Corey Nakatani should look to guide Brigand (4-1) into a relaxed stalking position in the colt’s first route effort. The son of Flatter battled his rider in his first trip with blinkers off in his last race; look for an improved ride and effort today with the cap back on. Stirred Up (2-1) is coming off a third-place effort in the Sunland Derby where his closing style did not do the colt any favors in a race with a pedestrian pace. The Lumber Guy (5-2) was axed off the lead in the Wood Memorial and faded to a disappointing fifth place finish in his first route effort. Should face a slightly slower front today and finish in the money.

Selections:
1. #2 Brigand (4-1)
2. #3 Stirred Up (2-1)
3. #1 The Lumber Guy (5-2)

2012 Blue Grass Stakes & Arkansas Derby Selections

Keeneland

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
Race 11 (6:18ET) Surface: All Weather
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $750,000
Daily Double-Exacta-Trifecta($.50 min)-Superfecta($.10 min)

With a morning line of 6-5, Hansen is unplayable in a field of thirteen three-year olds. In a race that has seen the favorite win only 21% of the time over the last fourteen years, it is advantageous for horseplayers to look for a winner beyond the impressive BC Juvenile champion. Racing Mogul will play Hansen in our exotics, but our three selections to knock off the favorite are as follows:

We are a tad gung ho about trainer Michael Maker’s other horse in the field, Gung Ho (30-1). Many will look over the Ramsey owned horse in the past performances upon first glance, but the son of Kitten’s Joy looks ready to burst onto the scene. Going off at 10:1, he finished a demoralizing seventh in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October after getting caught in the doldrums off the final turn. Most recently finishing with a nice second-place tune up in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, his running style and post position fit nicely for a race with a lot of horses rushing to the lead. Midnight Crooner (15-1) is similar to Gung Ho in running style and experience, having raced only at the ungraded level. Looks live coming in and well suited for the surface and projected pace scenario; willl struggle to overcome the eight hole, however. How great is Howe Great (6-1)? We’ll find out when he attempts to stalk the pace from the 10 post. 

Selections:

1. Gung Ho (30-1)

2. Midnight Crooner (15-1)

3. Howe Great (6-1)

Oaklawn Park

Arkansas DerbyRace 11 (6:45ET) Surface: Dirt
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,000,000First Half Late Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta
We like Secret Circle (5-2) to continue his Oaklawn Park win streak. His stablemate and morning-line favorite Bodemeister (9-5) may struggle with the pace and deeper surface than what he treads on regularly in southern California, but he should bring home the place. Sabrecat (15-1) will improve on a disappointing run in the Rebel Stakes. 

Selections:

1. Secret Circle (5-2)

2. Bodemeister (9-5)

3. Sabrecat (15-1)

Best of luck!

2012 Wood Memorial, Ashland, Carter Handicap, and Santa Anita Derby Selections

Keeneland
Race 8 (4:45 ET) Surface: All-Weather

Central Bank Ashland Stakes
1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $500,000
Double - Exacta - Trifecta ($.50 min)- Pick 3 ($.50 min)(Races 8-9-10) - Superfecta ($.10 min)

Karlovy Vary (5-1) is poised to burst on the scene as an elite filly while she attempts her first race on synthetics today. The George Arnold III trained horse is coming off an impressive optional claiming victory on the turf in Gulfstream, where she triumphed over Heart of Destiny (4-1)--a filly who placed second last Fall in Keeneland’s G1 Alcibiades. Karlovy Vary appears to like the surface after blazing a 59.6 work at five furlongs a fortnight ago. Hard Not To Like (6-1) is well...hard not to like in this race. Stymied by a string of poor trips she looks to set up for a nice, deep-closing run right off the rail. The morning-line favorite and BC Juvenile Filly Turf champion, Stephanie’s Kitchen (8-5), has yet to race since her victory at Churchill Downs last November. She may need a race under her belt to cover the distance on a surface that can swallow up horses lacking in stamina--breaking from the seven post is not going to make the task any easier.

1. Karlovy Vary (5-1)
2. Hard Not To Like (6-1)
3. Stephanie’s Kitchen (8-5)

Aqueduct
Race 9 (5:15 ET) Surface: Dirt
Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,000,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (9-11), Daily Double Wagers

Street Life (4-1) will benefit from a speed duel between the morning-line favorite, Gemologist (8-5) and The Lumber Guy (8-1). The son of Street Sense is a versatile runner who can press or come off the pace, allowing jockey Junior Alvarado the confidence to find him a perfect slot through the first turn. Alpha (5-2) is a talented colt who will come up short in his bid to cover the one mile and an eighth after returning from a 60-day layoff. Gemologist will hang on to round off the trifecta.

1. Street Life (4-1)
2. Alpha (5-2)
3. Gemologist (8-5)

Aqueduct

Race 10  (5:55 ET) Surface: Dirt 
Carter Handicap 
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $400,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Daily Double Wagers

1. Caleb’s Posse (8-5)
2. Calibrachoa (4-1)
3. Jackson Bend (3-1)

Santa Anita
Race 6 (5:41 ET) Surface: Dirt
Santa Anita Derby
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $750,000
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 6-7-8) $2 Pick Six Starts (Races 6-11)/ $1 Superfecta (.10 min)

1. Liason (8-1)
2. Midnight Transfer (10-1)
3. Holy Candy (8-1)

Prospective Victory in the Tampa Bay Derby?

Tampa Bay Downs
Race #11
Tampa Bay Derby (Post Time: 5:28 ET) Surface: Dirt
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $350,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum)

The Mark Casse trained, Prospective (8-1), will seek a prospective victory in the Grade II, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby for 3-year-old Triple Crown candidates on Saturday. The son of Malibu Moon is coming off a tough second-place finish in the Grade III, Sam F. Davis Stakes, ran last month on today's sandy surface, in which the public backed him as co-favorite. Breaking from the far outside, Prospective was stuck five wide through the first turn, as regular jock Luis Contreras attempted to settle him in to a more favorable racing position down the back stretch. The circumstances allowed the leaders to draw further away than his connections desired, and the dark brown colt was asked to make his move well before the stretch run four wide through the second turn. Casse equips Prospective with blinkers for the first time today in an effort to keep the horse focused and forward. A stalking run in this race is ideal for the win, especially with a few speed horses aiming to race hard to the front from the far outside. 

Morning-line favorite, Spring Hill Farm (5-2), is one of those darters who will shoot to the front end of the field. With two victories from two lifetime starts, Todd Pletcher's horse will certainly be a contender, but will have to work hard to stay up front. Spring Hill Farm won last time out in the slop while on the lead in his only route effort at Gulfstream Park. Questions remain, however, if the son of Smart Strike can hold his stamina on a deeper surface at this class level. Thoroughbred writer and seasoned handicapper, Peter Mallett, published a wonderful preview to today's race, pointing out that Pletcher has saddled five very short prices for this race and only one has gone on to win (Limehouse). Moreover, out of nine starters total for the Hall of Fame trainer, seven have finished second and one for show.

Cajun Charlie (15-1) enters this race with three wins out of five starts. The shipper will be facing much tougher in today's contest after beating up on Louisiana state-bred competition in his previous outings. He is breaking from the far outside and will look to challenge Spring Hill Farm and others for the lead. If he can get to the first turn comfortably he may be in a nice position to control the race to his liking. Carrying high weight is an issue, but we would not be shocked to see the chestnut gelding vie for the win in a speed duel, especially if the course comes up wet.

Selections:

1. #1 - Prospective (8-1)
2. #9 - Spring Hill Farm(5-2)
3. #12 Cajun Charlie (15-1)

Exotic spoiler:

#8 - Ravelo's Boy (12-1)


Get your free Brisnet past performance for the Tampa Bay Derby here.