Race 11 Fountain of Youth Stakes(Post Time: 5:13ET) Surface: Dirt 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $400,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta Discreet Dancer (3-1) will look for a tango partner on the lead of Gulfstream Park's feature race, the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes. With his stablemate, the morning-line favorite Algorithms, scratching this morning, the Todd Pletcher trained colt should duel with Union Rags for honors as the public's betting choice. Breaking from the five post, Discreet Dancershould vie for the lead to the half mile with Casual Trick just inside him, which is not the position you desire. Yesterday's rail was deep and slow, wearing down speedsters, stalkers, closers, and every other type of running style you fancy. Discreet Dancershould benefit sitting two or three wide. We always perk up when Pletcher assumes a new prodigy from the trust of former real-estate mogul and philanthropist, Einar Paul Robsham. In the last five years, the barn has won seven of 13 horses entered in graded stakes events and boasts a win rate of 40%. "Live for five" is our declaration today.
The New Orleans Fair Grounds celebrates the end of Mardi Gras with four graded stakes races to reinvigorate the “Big Easy’s” party atmosphere to a festival level. The feature GII Risen Star Stakes for three-year old males is the forerunner to the Louisiana Derby and official prep for the Kentucky Derby. Racing Mogul visited a fortune teller in the French Quarter last night and was cautioned that morning-line favorite El Padrino can not Afford to ignore Tizanexpense, and that a Hero of Order may be summonsed to corral the enigmatic field of youngsters. With such sage advice, I stumbled home and scratched out the following selections:
Race 11 Risen Star Stakes(Post Time: 4:55) Surface: Dirt 1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $300,000 Exacta / Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta Daily Double
Breaking from the far outside, Tizanexpense (10-1), the son of Tiznow ridden by jockey Miguel Mena, may need to conjure up some voodoo magic to find the trip necessary to take this field at the wire. After starting his career losing ground on synthetics and the lawn, the brown colt took to the dirt in his last two starts by default and took a liking to the sandy surface with two victories. Racing three wide through the first turn in his last race, the Michael Maker trained horse rallied down the stretch to win an optional claimer on today’s course. He has shown versatility in his young career, winning from the lead and off the pace, a talent which should help overcome the poor starting position. The blossoming "M&M" connection between Maker and Mena are a perfect five for five in the money in the last 90 days at the historic New Orleans track, with two wins. Will be a player in today’s race.
Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan gets his second start aboard the son of Street Sense, Afford (8-1), breaking from the always desirable one hole, which is winning at a 17% clip this meet at route distances on the dirt. Like Tizanexpense, the dark brown colt is facing much tougher today but displays many signs suggesting he is ready to rise to the occasion. Won last time out in his first route race following a nearly two-month layoff while going five wide through the first turn. No surprise trainer Greg Geier enters this horse two weeks off his last start; he’s rearing to go and may show a lot more effort two off a long layoff with a better trip.
Hero of Order (30-1) enters this race after a whopping 11 previous starts, of which he has only broken his maiden. He should be the rabbit in a field that otherwise has little front-end speed. He’s had difficulty maintaining his stamina, but has shown a new maturity in his past few starts and has several excuses. Ran a game fifth in the GIII LeComte Stakes after being hung three wide in the first turn and is coming off a third-place finish in an optional claimer where he posted a career high Beyer of 80 after his mount lost the whip. Track maintenance more than likely packed the dirt course fairly tight last night for the eye-catching card, and we expect the course to favor speed today. Wouldn’t surprise if Hero of Order could hold on for a shock upset.
1. Tizanexpense 2. Afford 3. Hero of Order
Wager: We think any of these three can steal a victory from the favorite. Win bets for each in a graduated system using three units. If wet, small on Hero of Order across the board.
For the first time since 2002, Oaklawn Park (OP) track officials have split the G3 Southwest Stakes into two divisions for the President’s Day feature. 21 three-year-old horses will vie for the $250,000 purses in races eight and nine in hopes of progressing to the cozy resort town’s big-pay event, the G1 Arkansas Derby. Can the silver-haired genius Bob Baffert take both divisions today? When shipping domestically Baffert owns a 38% winning percentage in G3 stakes races on dirt going a mile or over in the last five years, including two victories in his only starts at OP (Southwest 2010, Azeri 2010). We think he gets at least one of two, but expect both his horses to come in the money. Racing Moguls’ selections are as follows:
Reckless Jerry(9-2) looks to avenge his second-place finish to Junebugred in the Smarty Jones last month, as the Kenny Smith trained chestnut seeks a better trip than the five-wide half-marathon jockey Shane Laviolette was forced to run after breaking from the 12 post. Some classier horses jump off the page after an initial scan through the past performances, but we like his tempered running style in what is a race loaded with front-end speed. Junebugred looks to fire another big race, but is carrying seven extra pounds to most in the field and this may be the difference make between the first and second place horses who battled it out last month. Baffert’s Castaway (5-1) will need the perfect trip to win, breaking from the far outside. Since turning to route distances, the son of Street Sense is running more maturely and appears ready to blast a huge race. The pace will be hot and he will need to catch the first turn earlier than his peers, or he may get stuck five wide through the turn. If he does get the lead, expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to hold onto it with great fortitude. Junebugred (7-2) is working great after his Smarty Jones victory and looks to be in the mix again today. Added weight is a concern going long against comparable peers.
We loathe to back an even money morning-line favorite in a 10-horse field, but Secret Circle (1-1) is the real deal. The brown colt by Eddington is the reigning champ of the BC Juvenile Sprint and has holds a distinct class advantage over his competitors. He ran very well in his first route race in the G3 Sham, where he led the field down the stretch before being nudged out at the wire. Look for a more stamina-ready colt today. We expect Big Wednesday(15-1) to have a big Monday today. The Joseph Martin trained son of Repent had an awful trip in his only race on dirt at Mountaineer (where he was bothered early), but has fired away three wins in his only other starts on synthetics. There is nothing to suggest he can’t take to the surface, as his works at OP are solid. Starting from the far post, look for jockey Ramon Vazquez to tuck him behind the majority of the pack and make a move down the stretch. Scatman (6-1) will round out the trifecta. He should test the pace, and has proven he can handle a hot one. The son of Scat Daddy may be the only real threat to Secret Circle.
Picks: 1. #9 Secret Circle 2. #10 Big Wednesday 3. #3 Scatman
Santa Anita San Vicente Stakes(Post Time: 3:36) Surface: Dirt 7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $150,000 $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Rolling Pick Three (Races 7-8-9) $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
The San Vicente is a critical race for aspiring three-year old colts. Not only is it a key steppingstone to the Santa Anita Derby, but the winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby nine times. American Act(4-1), trained by Jack Carava, is taking an atypical route to today’s event, making a huge jump in class straight from a wire-to-wire victory in a MSW at Santa Anita last month. Concerning American Act'schances of running in Louisville on the first Saturday in May, Carava boasted to a Daily Racing Form (DRF) correspondent, “Pedigree-wise he may run long. He’s got a stride like a route horse...this race (San Vicente) will tell us how we go forward.” In a short field with only two black-type winners, Racing Mogul is backing the gelding’s chances to take advantage of circumstances and become a shock Derby candidate.
Perhaps the most impressive angle bettors will target with American Actis the second place horse he defeated last time out, Bodemeister. The Zayat owned colt trained by Bob Baffert blazed a clock-stopping effort in his second MSW effort last weekend, flashing the field by over nine lengths in a hand ride. The performance generated whispers of a late-blooming Derby contender, and thus far he looks just as impressive as most in today’s field. American Act won the race with an above-average early pace and padded his lead in the end, making the effort that much more impressive.
Drill(9-2), the winner of the Grade I Del Mar Futurity last September, has fallen flat his last few out. Stuck four wide in his last start, the 6.5f San Pedro Stakes, he sputtered down the stretch. Baffert tested him at route distances and on multiple surfaces prior to the sprint effort, giving the lifeless colt a few excuses for his poor performances leading up to today’s race. Drill’s most recent works have been far from “drilled” which makes morning watchers believe Baffert is deviating from his bullet breezes as a strategy to resuscitate a weakened horse. We think he rebounds today with a better trip, new work-out pattern, and preferred conditions.
The Grade I Norfolk Stakes winner, Creative Cause (3-5), enters his first race since an impressive third-place finish in the BC Juvenile. Trainer Mike Harrington’s reaction to today’s race worries us a bit, as he is treating the San Pedro as more of a tune up to the colt’s next start. “This is a big race, but he doesn’t have to win,” Harrington warned the DRF. “If he wins, fine. I expect him to run well. But I’m just trying to get a race into him.” If caught in an awkward situation, jockey Joel Rosario may play the race cautiously and settle for a money finish.
Race #8 El Camino Real Derby (Post Time: 4:43) Surface: All Weather Track 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $200,000 $1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Daily Double
Opening in 1982, the grade III, El Camino Real Derby is the first real stamina test of the season for three-year olds with an eye for the Kentucky Derby, going 9 furlongs on the all-weather Tapeta surface. Five-time winning trainer of this event, the esteemed trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, saddles two horses that Racing Mogul backs to challenge for the win.
Morning-line favorite, Russian Greek (5-2), will angle to make a final dash down the stretch to nip the leaders in a race with a lot of front-end speed. The son of Giant’s Causeway faces many of the same foes he defeated last month in the California Derby at Golden Gates Field, a race that saw
jockey Aaron Gryder close the field after blazing early fractions (23.26; 47.15). See a replay here:
Lady of Fifty(5-1), the lone filly in the field and other Hollendorfer entry, is the giant question mark. You have to love the fact hall-of-fame rider and eight-time winner of this race, Russell Baze, endorses the grey/roan daughter of After Market. Coming off a recent romp in the California Oaks, she likes to run on the lead, yet has failed to square off against stiff early fractions in her career. Baze will look to navigate her quickly to the front from the #10 post. Can she hold on? We are not too confident, but like the connections enough to see her finish in the money.
Dogged by a string of awful trips, Cahill Chrome(10-1), will break from the #3 post and attempt to settle in on the rail and stalk the pace. The son of Cahill Road was stuck four wide through both turns in the California Derby and held his own at the end, coming in second place. Look for him to hold off a late charge by Lucky Chappy (7-2).
1. Russian Greek 2. Lady of Fifty 3. Cahill Chrome
If you love thoroughbreds then you are probably also captivated by what could be the greatest mare in the history of racing.
She came up against her local 'nemesis' in Australia today, Hay List, with the least favorable lead up she has ever had before facing her only real competitor Down Under.
Hay List has 14 wins and 20 placings from 22 starts himself. And would have been celebrated as a champ in his own right in almost any other era, but after today's 5th second placing to the great mare, a total of 6 from his 8 losses have now come at her hands.
Hay List gave BC her greatest test of her 19 start career to date, but the video below shows how it was never going to be enough to best her.
Santa Anita Race 8 - Sweet Life Stakes (4:07) Surface: Downhill turf About 6 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | STAKES | Purse: $70,000
$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
Sunday's third running of the Sweet Life stakes draws eight three-year old fillies hoping to cross the wire in first and catapault to graded company. The Mike Puype trained Vionnet(6-1) is our choice to win. The grey Street Sense filly is out of Cambiocorsa by Avenue of Flags, a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won nine starts on the lawn. Jockey David Flores gets the mount and sports an impressive 5 for 20 lifetime stakes race wins with Puype. Flores will settle Vionnet neatly near the back and charge the leaders down the stretch in a race with a lot of front-end speed. The longest price on the board, Dypsy (12-1), shipped to southern California from mid-west obscurity and has been zipping bullet works for trainer Richard Baltas. The chestnut's giant leap in class coupled with a desire to take the lead is a concern, but Racing Mogul believes she will take well to her first time on turf and hang around in the end. Making her first start in the U.S., Dijarvo (5-2), will settle the trifecta. Trainer Patrick Gallagher is sending out his fair share of winners this meet and is cashing at a 25% clip with first-time starters.
Gulfstream Park is the site for this weekend’s premiere U.S. horse racing program, as the southern Florida track and casino hosts four stakes races, including the feature, $500,000 Donn Handicap. Racing Mogul’s selections for the races and wagering strategies are as follows:
UPDATE - Main-Sloppy/Turf-Soft *Wet conditions have forced a number of scratches. See comments in red for updated wagering strategies
Thunder Moccasin (7-5) is our favorite to win Saturday’s $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (G2). Only his second lifetime start, trainer Todd Pletcher is making an ambitious jump in class with his barn’s newest phenom. The colt attracted the horse racing world’s attention after he drew clear of the field by 2.5 lengths in his debut at Gulfstream Park in a $40,000 MSW going 6.5 furlongs. Both the second and third place horses from the race went on to win next time out, an angle savvy horse player’s will favor immensely.
Pletcher does not consider the son of A.P. Warrior to jump on the Derby trail despite the race being a stepping stone for contenders. “I think he gets seven-eighths to a mile, after that I’d be a little surprised (to see him stretch out),” Pletcher remarked in an interview for Gulfstream Park reporters. The trainer continues, “He’s pretty forward and ambitious early, so I think he’s a sprinter. That’s the feeling he gives us at the barn.”
There appears to be little speed on the lead to have a chance at wearing down Thunder Moccasin. This horse is fast, fast, fast, breezing a bullet 47.66 at 4f in his most recent workout. With a clean break he should take the field wire to wire. Opening as the 7-5 morning-line favorite, this price should dwindle down to even money or worse with only six horses slated to start. He will be a better choice to key on a pick-3 wager with two favorable betting races to follow.
*Trainer Johnathan Shephard has scratched Thunder Moccasin's primary threat Ever So Lucky, making the race a field of five. Frankly, he probably wanted to duck this race anyway, as he sees his young colt as a Derby contender and faced stern competition against Pletcher's horse. We are a little skeptical of Thunder Moccasin's ability to take to the slop. He is so fast that it shouldn't be a problem, but the track may deteriorate to muddy depending if the grounds crew struggle to groom the dirt and keep water out. There are stamina concerns if that is the case.
Race 9 - Suwannee River Stakes(Post Time: 4:17)Surface: Turf
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up | G3 STAKES | Purse: $150,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Bet 3 (Races 9-10-11) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-10-11-12)
This route trip on the lawn for older fillies and mares is a good betting race with several real contenders. Racing Mogul is backing Heavenly Landing(4-1), a five-year-old mare trained by Eddie Kenneally who has won her last three races over the turf. Here is a replay of her last start in The Marshua’s River Stakes (G3), where she rallied down the stretch as a 20:1 long shot to nip the field at the wire:
The morning-line favorite, Denomination (3-1), will rate well and finish in the money. Commandeered by Joe Bravo, when riding for the turf-master Cristophe Clement this meet, they are teaming up for a 26% win rate with an impressive average return of $3.08.
Bet: Win/Place: #4 Heavenly Landing
*We'll hold our play here. Not sure how she'll take to the soft turf, but the two scratches in the race should not affect the pace scenario. If anything, there will be more room for a late closer like Heavenly Landing to make a move down the stretch. Recommend a smaller wager.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 10 - Donn Handicap (Post Time: 4:45) Surface: Dirt 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $500,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Bet 3 (Races 10-11-12)
The feature race is potentially the strongest field ever for the Donn. It features last year’s Preakness and Belmont winners, Shackleford(7-2) and Ruler On Ice (6-1); the Breeders’ Cup Classic post-time favorite, Flat Out (5-1); and an undefeated horse, Trickmeister (6-1), who may go off as the bettor’s favorite. Whoever takes the most money at the window will still offer a nice price, as 4-1 may be the lowest any horse drops in this field.
Morning-line favorite, Shackleford, is our choice to win. This is his first start in three months after coming home second in the BC Dirt Mile. There is not much speed in this race. Look for Trickmeister to take the lead with Shackleford rating closely to the first corner. How fast the two push the pace will determine if they stay near the front come the finish. Veteran jockey Ramon Dominguez, his first time on the lightly raced Trickmeister, should keep the Richard Dutrow horse from getting caught too loose on the lead. Shackleford will press and take the wire in a close battle down the stretch.
*We'll stay with our original wager here. A little worried Shackleford may taste a little more dirt than he likes while potentially chasing Trickmeister, but it shouldn't be too much mud in his face as most of the field will be behind the two. In his only off-track start in the Belmont, Shackleford wilted at the end and finished 5th, but we're willing to overlook that result as the Classic contest presents its own unique challenges.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race 11 - Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (Post Time 5:13) Surface: Turf 1 1/8 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $300,000 $1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Racing Mogul is backingSmart Bid(8-1) to earn his first G1 victory against an average field. The son of Smart Strike gets around Florida grass really well and and just missed winning this race last year by a nose.
Bet: Win/Place: #9 Smart Bid
*Motion has scratched Smart Bid. We will play #8 Kindergarden Kid to Win/Place
Here are the results of the 2012 Kentucky Derby prep races from Saturday Feb 4th.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park
I’ll Have Another, Empire Way, Rousing Sermon
I’ll Have Another enjoyed a perfect trip under Mario Gutierrez and shook free in the stretch to secure his first career graded stakes win and stamp himself a contender for the Santa Anita Derby.
“He’s an incredibly talented colt and we decided to take a chance in here. We thought he could hit the board and we’d move forward, but he ran unbelievable,” trainer Doug O’Neill said. “Mario Gutierrez gave him a great ride. He’s always trained fantastic, but we never saw this coming to be honest with you. This is incredible. We’ll look at the Santa Anita Derby on April 7 if all goes well.
Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs
Battle Hardened, Prospective, Reveron
Stalking the pace in fourth on the inside much of the way, Battle Hardened pounced on Reveron just past mid-stretch and held on to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Prospective, the 7-2 second choice, won a three-way photo for second by a nose, with Reveron third.
Eddie Kenneally trainer of Battle Hardened said “This was a really good bunch of quality horses, but no stars, and that was one reason we decided to take a shot today. We had also entered him in a maiden race at Gulfstream today but he’s been training brilliantly and we were happy with how he was coming into the race, so we decided to come here and get some of the big money.” Kenneally said he’ll strongly consider the Tampa Bay Derby onMarch 10 for Battle Hardened’s next start.
Withers Stakes at Aqueduct.
Alpha, Speightscity, Tiger Walk
Alpha was dominant in a 3 1/4-length win. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said he was none the worse for wear on Sunday morning at Aqueduct.
McLaughlin said he expects Alpha, unbeaten in two stakes races at three, to remain at Aqueduct for his next race on the Triple Crown trail, targeting the Gotham Stakes on March 3 or the Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial Stakes on April 7, or maybe both.
“We’ll look at the Gotham/Wood, talk to Simon Crisford (Godolphin racing) manager and see if we want to run him two more times, or one more time,” McLaughlin said. “We like having him here in New York.”
Louisiana Bred Premier Night Prince at Delta Downs
Cajun Charlie, Zip Motion, Freddie One Bite
Needles Stakes at Gulfstream Park
Musical Flair, Martini Madness, Silver Menace (Hello Prince finished 2nd but was DQed and placed last)
WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park
Mr. Prankster, Phantom Fury, Magical Season
Turfway Prevue Stakes winner Mr. Prankster closed from last to take a clear lead in early stretch and powered to a 7½-length romp in the $50,000 WEBN Stakes on Saturday at Turfway Park. Mr. Prankster beat second betting choice Phantom Fury with a sweeping bid into the stretch under John McKee. Mr. Prankster rallied from more than seven lengths off the pace to win.
