Prospective Victory in the Tampa Bay Derby?

Tampa Bay Downs
Race #11
Tampa Bay Derby (Post Time: 5:28 ET) Surface: Dirt
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G2 STAKES | Purse: $350,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum)

The Mark Casse trained, Prospective (8-1), will seek a prospective victory in the Grade II, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby for 3-year-old Triple Crown candidates on Saturday. The son of Malibu Moon is coming off a tough second-place finish in the Grade III, Sam F. Davis Stakes, ran last month on today's sandy surface, in which the public backed him as co-favorite. Breaking from the far outside, Prospective was stuck five wide through the first turn, as regular jock Luis Contreras attempted to settle him in to a more favorable racing position down the back stretch. The circumstances allowed the leaders to draw further away than his connections desired, and the dark brown colt was asked to make his move well before the stretch run four wide through the second turn. Casse equips Prospective with blinkers for the first time today in an effort to keep the horse focused and forward. A stalking run in this race is ideal for the win, especially with a few speed horses aiming to race hard to the front from the far outside. 

Morning-line favorite, Spring Hill Farm (5-2), is one of those darters who will shoot to the front end of the field. With two victories from two lifetime starts, Todd Pletcher's horse will certainly be a contender, but will have to work hard to stay up front. Spring Hill Farm won last time out in the slop while on the lead in his only route effort at Gulfstream Park. Questions remain, however, if the son of Smart Strike can hold his stamina on a deeper surface at this class level. Thoroughbred writer and seasoned handicapper, Peter Mallett, published a wonderful preview to today's race, pointing out that Pletcher has saddled five very short prices for this race and only one has gone on to win (Limehouse). Moreover, out of nine starters total for the Hall of Fame trainer, seven have finished second and one for show.

Cajun Charlie (15-1) enters this race with three wins out of five starts. The shipper will be facing much tougher in today's contest after beating up on Louisiana state-bred competition in his previous outings. He is breaking from the far outside and will look to challenge Spring Hill Farm and others for the lead. If he can get to the first turn comfortably he may be in a nice position to control the race to his liking. Carrying high weight is an issue, but we would not be shocked to see the chestnut gelding vie for the win in a speed duel, especially if the course comes up wet.

Selections:

1. #1 - Prospective (8-1)
2. #9 - Spring Hill Farm(5-2)
3. #12 Cajun Charlie (15-1)

Exotic spoiler:

#8 - Ravelo's Boy (12-1)


Get your free Brisnet past performance for the Tampa Bay Derby here.

Gotham Stakes Selections: Can Any Horse Challenge Hansen?

Aqueduct

Gotham Stakes (Post Time: 5:02 ET) Surface: Inner track
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $400,000
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Daily Double Wagers

Race #10

Can any horse challenge Hansen in this crowded Derby prep race? Racing Mogul believes it's highly unlikely. The following are our selections for the 59th running of the Gotham Stakes:

Jockey Ramon Domingeuz will look to replicate the masterful trip he piloted aboard morning-line favorite Hansen (6-5) last November in Saturday's Gotham Stakes, a ride that secured victory in the coveted BC Juvenile at Churchill Downs. None of Hansen’s foes from that prestigious race are entered into Aqueduct's feature today, making the majestic grey colt’s road to the Wood Memorial that much easier. Coming off a second-place finish in the G3 Holy Bull, a race run in the slop where the champ flattened in the final furlongs following a nearly three-month lay off, Hansen is tuned up to cement his name atop the Kentucky Derby future pools. Michael Maker takes the blinkers off for Saturday's race, the first for the colt’s career. This equipment change does not really raise any alarms, as it is an angle that has worked very well for the trainer in the past and the horse is plenty experienced. One small area of concern for the favorite, in addition to carrying high weight, is breaking from the twelve hole. He is one of three or four who will look to assume the lead to the first turn, and if the challenge becomes too chaotic he could end up extremely wide through the turn. His class, however, should be enough to overcome a longer trip barring other mishaps in a crowded thirteen-horse field. With a win, Dominguez will claim his second Gotham in a row (Stay Thirsty, 2011) and his third overall (Cowtown Cat, 2007), tying the mark for most all time in the event.

Stealcase (12-1) hopes to settle in a nice closing position from the rear of the field and pass a host of tiring rivals down the stretch. Shipping in form Florida, the son of Lawyer Ron, who broke his maiden last time out at Gulfstream Park, attempts to honor to his $320,000 price tag against much stiffer competition today. He beat an impressive Pletcher-trained colt who won his next start with style, and appears to be a live one entering the mix. Against this field, the class jump appears more like a baby step.

Rajiv Maragh gets a nice draw breaking from the five post on Maan (15-1). Anticipate the seasoned jockey to rate just off the pace and dig in gamely down the stretch in what is the colt's first route effort. The son of Malibu Moon is coming off an impressive optional claiming win at 6.5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park, in which he swam the rail slop throughout before showing good spark under command to pull away at the end. A little concerned if he can cover the distance, but his pressing running style is the type that covers a little extra distance than what the pedigree suggests.

Selections:

1. Hansen (6-5)
2. Stealcase (12-1)
3. Maan (15-1)

Exotic Spoiler: Done Talking (20-1)

Good luck!