Bob Baffert to Sweep the Southwest Stakes?

For the first time since 2002, Oaklawn Park (OP) track officials have split the G3 Southwest Stakes into two divisions for the President’s Day feature. 21 three-year-old horses will vie for the $250,000 purses in races eight and nine in hopes of progressing to the cozy resort town’s big-pay event, the G1 Arkansas Derby. Can the silver-haired genius Bob Baffert take both divisions today? When shipping domestically Baffert owns a 38% winning percentage in G3 stakes races on dirt going a mile or over in the last five years, including two victories in his only starts at OP (Southwest 2010, Azeri 2010). We think he gets at least one of two, but expect both his horses to come in the money. Racing Moguls’ selections are as follows:

Race #8
Southwest Stakes - Division 1 (Post Time: 4:41) Surface: Dirt
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $250,000
First Half Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)

Reckless Jerry (9-2) looks to avenge his second-place finish to Junebugred in the Smarty Jones last month, as the Kenny Smith trained chestnut seeks a better trip than the five-wide half-marathon jockey Shane Laviolette was forced to run after breaking from the 12 post. Some classier horses jump off the page after an initial scan through the past performances, but we like his tempered running style in what is a race loaded with front-end speed. Junebugred looks to fire another big race, but is carrying seven extra pounds to most in the field and this may be the difference make between the first and second place horses who battled it out last month. Baffert’s Castaway (5-1) will need the perfect trip to win, breaking from the far outside. Since turning to route distances, the son of Street Sense is running more maturely and appears ready to blast a huge race. The pace will be hot and he will need to catch the first turn earlier than his peers, or he may get stuck five wide through the turn. If he does get the lead, expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to hold onto it with great fortitude. Junebugred (7-2) is working great after his Smarty Jones victory and looks to be in the mix again today. Added weight is a concern going long against comparable peers.

Picks:
1. #8 Reckless Jerry
2. #11 Castaway
3. #6 Junebugred

Exotic Spoiler: 

#3 Jake Mo

Race #9
Southwest Stakes - Division 2 (Post Time: 5:15) Surface: Dirt
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds | G3 STAKES | Purse: $250,000
First Half Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)

We loathe to back an even money morning-line favorite in a 10-horse field, but Secret Circle (1-1) is the real deal. The brown colt by Eddington is the reigning champ of the BC Juvenile Sprint and has holds a distinct class advantage over his competitors. He ran very well in his first route race in the G3 Sham, where he led the field down the stretch before being nudged out at the wire. Look for a more stamina-ready colt today. We expect Big Wednesday (15-1) to have a big Monday today. The Joseph Martin trained son of Repent had an awful trip in his only race on dirt at Mountaineer (where he was bothered early), but has fired away three wins in his only other starts on synthetics. There is nothing to suggest he can’t take to the surface, as his works at OP are solid. Starting from the far post, look for jockey Ramon Vazquez to tuck him behind the majority of the pack and make a move down the stretch. Scatman (6-1) will round out the trifecta. He should test the pace, and has proven he can handle a hot one. The son of Scat Daddy may be the only real threat to Secret Circle.

Picks:
1. #9 Secret Circle
2. #10 Big Wednesday
3. #3 Scatman

Exotic Spoiler: #10 Big Wednesday